A US-North Korea summit being held this year appears to have about a 50 percent chance, with Pyongyang exercising restraint to keep the possibility alive, the National Intelligence Service reported Wednesday.
In a briefing to lawmakers, the NIS said that a summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has about a "50 percent chance of taking place around the time of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conferences," according to Rep. Yoo Yeong-ha of the main opposition People Power Party.
This year's APEC event is to be held in China in November.
The NIS also said Pyongyang "is keen on not losing this opportunity," according to Yoo, who added the NIS' intelligence suggested that North Korean diplomats dealing with the US have been "very busy."
Yoo was one of the lawmakers briefed by the spy agency in a general meeting of the Intelligence Committee of the National Assembly.
Another lawmaker who was briefed Wednesday, Democratic Party of Korea Rep. Youn Kun-young, said the NIS saw Pyongyang exercising restraint.
According to Youn, an NIS official said North Korea was "keeping the door open to advancing ties with the US amid friendly gestures from Trump, while at the same time presenting prerequisites for dialogue to the US." The official added that Pyongyang was seeking US recognition as a nuclear-weapon state and urging the US to ditch its "hostile policy."
The NIS also said North Korea "is refraining from direct criticism or harsh rhetoric against Trump," which "signals (Pyongyang's) intention not to derail the process" of resuming the talks, according to Youn.
North Korean leader Kim has also refrained from provocations such as making public appearances in weapon tests and military drills. This shows a contrast from Kim's increase in the number of public appearances overall this year so far, by 30 percent to 121, against the corresponding period in 2025.
In the meantime, North Korea has pushed ahead with its demands for a "clear shift in Washington's stance" regarding sanctions and push for denuclearization, the NIS official said. Its demands have been presented through statements by North Korean leader's sister Kim Yo-jong and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui.
Wednesday's statement by Kim Yo-jong, in response to Seoul's announcement that North Korean-made land mines were the cause of two successive blasts that injured three South Korean military officers on Sept. 21, was seen by the NIS as a "low-key statement" focused on denying its involvement rather than provoking Seoul or Washington, lawmakers said.
As to Kim's health, the spy agency's observation indicated that Kim has "no health abnormalities" although he is extremely obese, weighing about 140 kilograms, and therefore carries a high risk of cardiovascular disease.
Regarding ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, South Korea's spy agency estimated that some 9,000 North Korean troops are currently deployed to fight alongside Russia, while Russia has been slow to transfer technologies related to North Korea's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear-powered submarines, according to Youn.
Meanwhile, according to the spy agency, South Korea has yet to receive any formal or informal apologies so far from Ukraine for breaking the consensus to keep the transfer of two North Korean soldiers to South Korea confidential and making a false public statement to deny such consensus.
Yoo said that an NIS official confirmed the confidentiality consensus was reached "between diplomatic authorities" of the two countries, while the transfer was made without conditions.
The NIS speculated that Ukraine had broken the consensus in anticipation that it could drum up local support for South Korea's deployment of weapons.
consnow@heraldcorp.com