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Limit bets on clinical-trial outcomes being placed on prediction markets

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  • CORRESPONDENCE

By

  • Thomas J. Hwang0 &
  • Sarah M. E. Gabriele1
  1. Thomas J. Hwang

    1. Cancer Innovation and Regulation Initiative, Boston, USA.

  2. Sarah M. E. Gabriele

    1. Harvard T.H. School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Online betting involving US ‘prediction markets’ has grown sharply over the past year. In July, one of the largest platforms announced plans to allow betting on clinical-trial outcomes and regulatory decisions. This new class of wagers, known as event contracts, raises serious concerns. Prediction markets could intensify the financial pressure for misconduct.

Nature 657, 566 (2026)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-02795-9

Competing Interests

T.J.H. has unpaid committee membership to ESMO (Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale) and receives unrelated consulting fees from Treehill Partners LLP on pharmaceutical policy

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